For years, concerns about climate change in Ghana's cocoa sector have centred on declining yields, drought, pests, diseases and the future suitability of cocoa-growing areas. New research, however, suggests an even more immediate threat may be emerging: the declining capacity and productivity of farmers to sustain cocoa production.

A study by researchers from the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi (KNUST), Harvard University and international partners found that climate change is increasingly affecting the health, wellbeing, labour productivity and adaptive capacity of cocoa farmers across Ghana's cocoa belt.

The findings were presented at a Research and Policy Breakfast in Accra  under the project Towards a Cocoa Producer-Focused Climate Policy in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, supported by the Harvard University Center for African Studies through the Motsepe Presidential Research Accelerator Fund for Africa.

Drawing on evidence from 220 household surveys, 95 in-depth interviews, nine focus group discussions and participatory research conducted across 10 cocoa-growing communities, the study found widespread concern among farmers about the changing climate and its impact on their livelihoods.

Nearly 98% of farmers reported rising temperatures, 97% reported worsening drought conditions and more than 91% said rainfall patterns had become increasingly unpredictable. More than 92% reported that these changes had contributed to declining cocoa yields.

The researchers said, however, that the most significant finding lies elsewhere.

While cocoa trees remain vulnerable to climate stress, farmers themselves are increasingly experiencing heat exhaustion, fatigue, dehydration, reduced working hours, stress and anxiety. More than three-quarters of respondents reported working fewer hours because of extreme heat, while more than 70% reported increasing physical exhaustion during farm work.

The study warns that these trends could undermine the labour force needed to sustain cocoa production long before climate change makes cocoa cultivation unviable.

According to the researchers, Ghana may therefore face a cocoa labour crisis before it faces a cocoa production crisis.

"The evidence suggests that climate change is reducing not only cocoa productivity but also labour productivity," said Dr. Albert Arhin, lead researcher on the Ghana component of the study. "The real threat is not only fewer cocoa pods. The real threat is fewer people willing and physically able to continue producing cocoa."

The findings indicate that increasing physical strain, rising production costs, labour shortages and uncertainty about future yields are affecting farmers' willingness to remain in cocoa farming. Nearly half of those surveyed said they had at some point considered leaving the sector because of mounting climatic and economic pressures.

Researchers also found that the challenge is not simply one of awareness. Farmers demonstrated a strong understanding of climate change and adaptation practices, including shade management, water conservation and adjusting planting calendars. Many, however, lacked the financial resources needed to implement adaptation measures at scale.

The study also raises concerns about the limits of price-based interventions. While farmers welcomed the introduction of the Living Income Differential (LID), many argued that higher prices alone cannot offset declining production caused by climate-related stresses.

One farmer summed up the dilemma: "The LID helps only when there is cocoa to sell."

The researchers therefore call for a fundamental shift in cocoa policy. Rather than focusing primarily on productivity, prices and environmental compliance, they propose a Cocoa Producer-Focused Climate Policy that places farmer health, wellbeing, labour productivity, resilience and adaptive capacity at the centre of climate adaptation efforts.

The policy brief launched at the event outlines an Eight-Point Agenda that includes increased investment in adaptation finance, climate-smart water management, occupational health and wellbeing, climate-resilient infrastructure, greater farmer participation in decision-making and stronger support systems for cocoa-producing communities.

The researchers argue that the implications extend beyond agriculture. Cocoa remains one of Ghana's leading export commodities and a major source of foreign exchange earnings, employment and rural livelihoods. Any decline in the resilience and productivity of cocoa farmers, they said, poses broader risks to the country's economic development.

The study concludes that safeguarding Ghana's cocoa industry requires more than protecting cocoa trees from climate change. It also requires protecting the people whose labour sustains cocoa production. As climate pressures intensify across West Africa, the researchers argue, building a climate-resilient cocoa sector will depend on an equally strong commitment to building climate-resilient cocoa producers.